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Agricultural traders come out of the doldrums
13 March 2008COMMENTS
I've been trading crops for many a year now and I've never seen such a good market. There isn't a bit of barley I can't trade at the moment Read all comments »Financial firms are (ahem) ploughing money into agricultural commodities and the once-maligned trading roles are back in vogue.
With all the hoo-ha surrounding escalating oil prices, it’s easy to overlook the agricultural commodities like grain, oil seeds, coffee, cocoa and sugar, but they’re predicted to take off in 2008.
The latest quarterly review from the Bank for International Settlements reveals that trading on the agricultural futures and options market increased 16%, to 528 million contracts. Meanwhile, volumes of sugar futures traded in January on Liffe, the UK derivatives exchange, smashed the previous record by 23%.
Some soft commodities can be used to make bio-fuels, which is helping drive up the price.
Recruiters say that investment banks like Merrill Lynch and Macquarie are bolstering their agricultural commodities trading desks, while others are playing catch-up. But hedge funds are now cashing in, with Mulvaney Capital returning 21% on its crop commodities fund, and Armajaro Asset Management raising $500m for a soft commodities fund in November.
Riann Lazenby, recruiter, grains and oil seeds, at Commodities Appointments, says: “The interest from hedge funds and prop trading houses in traders has reached new levels because of the current phenomenal returns. This has put real pressure on the rather limited talent pool.”
And Randal Goldsmith, lead analyst at S&P, has tipped funds of hedge funds to join the party: “Many funds of hedge funds currently see the chance of making good returns from commodity trends, particularly in the agricultural sector. They believe that commodity trading advisors and global macro funds are the best way to play this.”
High-paying hedge funds are proving alluring to agricultural traders, who find they’re suddenly the headhunters’ new best friend, reckons Eric De Rothschild, director, agricultural commodities, at DNA Search: “It might be riskier, but because of the boom they can really cash in.”
An agricultural commodities trader can expect to bring in £75k-£120k base, with a 200-300% bonus in an i-bank, often guaranteed in the first year, says De Rothschild. A head of desk can expect up to £250k base, with an uncapped bonus in a hedge fund.
COMMENTS
Farmer Giles, Trading, Thu 13 Mar 08
I've been trading crops for many a year now and I've never seen such a good market. There isn't a bit of barley I can't trade at the moment
Add your comment »Oilseedman, Trading, Thu 13 Mar 08
The bull market in grains and oilseeds is at an early stage in my opinion...acreage expansion in the United States and in the world in general is limited. The demand will stay strong in coming years. To give you an example of expanding demand, corn usage for ethanol in the US should be near
3 billion bushels in 07/08...in 08/09 this usage is projected near 4.2 billion bushels (40% increase).
Mike Evans, Investment Banking / M & A, Tue 18 Mar 08
Yet another bubble waitnig to be created and burst. Much talk in the press now of the level of speculative positions being taken in oil and metals, up to 50% of all futures trading. If this isn't a bubble waiting to burst then I don't know what is. Agri will be the same, or even worse. Crop growers can and do respond very quicky to material price changes, which is why we saw such large swings in sugar a year or so back and will again. I wouldn't ditch my day job to be a softs trader because you may have 1 good year but thats about it.
Add your comment »Dave, Asset Management, Tue 18 Mar 08
Totally agree with Mike Evans...the agricultural commodities are going to absolutely plummet very soon. Your read it here.
Add your comment »Andrew B - NZ, Investment Banking / M & A, Tue 18 Mar 08
Couldn't disagree more with Mike and Dave. I recommend you go to mises.org and read up on Austrian capital theory.
When central banks print shiploads of money the first place they go is into assets that take ages to pay back their investment (highly capital intensive assets benefit most from artificially lowering the cost of capital). Examples are cars in the 1920s (120 US car companies prior to 1929 crash), tech/biotech research in the 1990s, housing in the 2000s.
Resources are stripped away from the production of lower order capital goods and consumer goods. Resources extraction/harvesting has been underinvested in for ages (which is why stocks have got so low). Metal resources headed up first because they go into production of infrastructure. Now the money is finally getting to the last stage - agricultural commodities because the actual assets can't be stored for too long and have to be consumed straight away. The run up in ag commodities is a correction, not a bubble.
Dave, Asset Management, Wed 19 Mar 08
Interest what you say but diasagree. As the credit crunch worsens, you will see funds and institutions so starved of liquidity that agro funds will effectively be raided. Retail investors will see the price falls, pull out and there follows an ever increasing downward spiral. Note when the Bear news came out, this started to happen.
Add your comment »Dave, Asset Management, Thu 20 Mar 08
I'm feeling particularly smug now. Long of put warrants on agro-indices - I cleaned up today. Have a nice easter, folks !!
Add your comment »Andrew B - NZ, Investment Banking / M & A, Tue 25 Mar 08
Two days does not a short to medium term make.
Add your comment »


