|
Jobs and Career Management in the Financial Markets, Banking & Finance |
|
| Job Seekers Sign in / Register |
Recruiter's Sign-in
|
| Careers Home | My eFinancialCareers | Find a Job | Post Resume |
Search by Company |
News & Advice |
Search Resumes |
Post a Job
|
TOP STORIES
Dr Dread: We are living in unprecedented times
21 March 2008COMMENTS
So what, banks are borrowing at the discount window? They're not stupid - the Fed's offering cheap money and any financial institution with an ounce of sense is going to make the most of that. The Fed's said to be lending $95 for every $100 of securities, even if they're MBS, which beats what anyone else is offering right now. Read all comments »So you were feeling good about the world? Think again, says our new columnist and senior investment banking risk professional, Dr Dread.
Massive global imbalances, trade deficits, current account deficits, a plunging dollar, rising inflation, a monumental housing bust, mountains of mis-priced and illiquid derivatives, banks teetering on the edge of bankruptcy, bust investment banks, wholesale monetization of worthless securities by the Federal Reserve, counterparty trust a contradiction in terms, inept regulators, rating agencies and governments blaming each other; liquidity, credit and confidence mortally wounded, an avalanche of litigation of unheard-of proportions in the pipeline.
We are all watching the financial tsunami in slow motion, hoping, praying and deluding ourselves into believing that all will be OK in short order, as Uncle Ben becomes the buyer of last resort of everything – yes, everything that can loosely be defined as ‘financial’.
Now that Bear Stearns is gone, we are told all is well – business as usual. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Lehman run to Papa (Big Ben) for funding for the first time ever and the spin used to justify it beggars belief:
"We have tested the window because we want to remove the stigma from the window," Morgan Stanley chief financial officer Colm Kelleher said in an interview earlier this week, referring to the Fed lending programme. "It's meant to be there for normal business. It's not meant to be there as a last-recourse thing."
Goldman spokesman Michael DuVally said his firm is also "testing" the Fed facility, started 17 March, and will use it "if doing so makes sense from an economic and funding diversification point of view".
Lehman chief financial officer Erin Callan confessed her company used the window too. "We wanted to show some leadership," Callan said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. Wall Street firms were reluctant to turn to the Fed earlier this week because of concern that it might make them appear financially weak, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Convinced? You should be! After all, last week Bear Stearns said they were in a strong financial position!
And my all-time favourite – the Financial Services Authority (FSA) said it would "not tolerate" traders starting "false" rumours about firms to make cash from dealing in their shares. Sounds like the “rumour-mongering law" that exists in banana republics in Africa and Latin America. When the health of the entire banking system in a ‘developed’ country is put at mortal risk by "rumours", you wonder why confidence in the whole system is non-existent.
And then there are hedge funds – precariously balanced, squeezed on all sides – increased margins by their ‘loyal’ prime brokers, rapid withdrawals by clients; illiquid derivatives that were once ‘marked-to-geek model’ now need to be ‘marked-to-market’ (note there is no market, so technically they are worthless), their ability to ‘fudge’ positions, pricing and NAVs is under severe scrutiny.
But rest assured, all is fine – Uncle Ben is there – Hank & Co. will protect their cronies in the investment banks, all sins will be monetized. All the ‘sins’ of the Japanese of the 90s are being repeated in the West, except on a larger scale and more blatantly. Personal accountability, moral hazard, corporate governance? What’s that? Ben and Hank will protect us all. All is well, do not worry – be happy.
Think, think and think again – you have a job today, but will you have one tomorrow? Last year’s bonus may need to go a long way yet.
Dr Dread is a risk professional who has occupied senior positions in investment banks and hedge funds. He now manages his own money.
COMMENTS
CDO hero, Derivatives, Fri 21 Mar 08
The "avalanche of litigation in the pipeline" can be disastrous - if the media create a story around some of those, they would trigger the vicious game of the recent past, lost of confidence from the money market and banks left without money! And those litigations are just cooking now...
Add your comment »informed reader, Student, Sat 22 Mar 08
Erin Callan is a woman. Might be good to not just cut and paste from other sights, but double-check your sources.
Add your comment »On the money, Sat 22 Mar 08
So what, banks are borrowing at the discount window? They're not stupid - the Fed's offering cheap money and any financial institution with an ounce of sense is going to make the most of that.
Add your comment »Sub prime Kid, Derivatives, Sat 22 Mar 08
So now we will have the articles of Dr Doom instead of the ABS professional, hu?
Add your comment »Sarah, Editor, eFinancialCareers, HR & Recruitment, Sun 23 Mar 08
ABS professional will now appear on Tuesdays...
Add your comment »former ABS kid, Asset Management, Sun 23 Mar 08
Diary of an ABS kid was more fun... we all read news on our screens during the week. (well at least those who still have a job ...)
Add your comment »A Koch, Asset Management, Tue 25 Mar 08
This seems in rather poor taste after Tony Dye, labelled Dr Doom by the press, died this month. He was also known for his quality of thought and writing, so this is a distinctly inferior offering.
Add your comment »Sarah,Editor, eFinancialCareers, HR & Recruitment, Tue 25 Mar 08
The name has been changed out of respect to Tony Dye.
Add your comment »Asset Manager, Asset Management, Tue 25 Mar 08
Dear A Koch - study this 'distinctly inferior offering' - you might learn a thing or two about asset management.
Add your comment »fisherking, Risk Management, Tue 25 Mar 08
Folks, sorry to hear about Tony Dye but Henry Kaufman (former Sr Partner and Head of the mighty Research arm of Salomon Brothers until 1988) was the original Dr Doom. Re the article, the broad assessments are generally correct, even though being gloomy at this point of the cycle strikes me as a bit of a cheap shot.
Add your comment »


