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Which houses to work for at each point in the cycle
28 October 2009By Sarah Butcher
COMMENTS
We've been in the low point of the cycle effectively since 2001. Fixed income is will be king for some time to come Read all comments »In their analysis of last quarter's Goldman results (‘Goldman Sachs: Holding All The Right Cards’), the analysts at Bernstein Research came up with an interesting graphic on where it would be fortuitous to position your career at each point in the banking cycle.
We’re currently in the fixed income-driven phase led by the likes of Goldman, JP Morgan and Barclays Capital. Bernstein thinks this has longer to run – until at least 2011 to be precise. Once spreads compress and interest rates start rising, M&A will become de-rigueur, and then retail investors will come back.
Goldman Sachs is good for much of the cycle, but lacks a retail presence. Morgan Stanley will come into its own once M&A and retail investing kick in, and boutiques like Greenhill and Lazard will thrive in 2011 if not before.
The pressure is clearly on for BarCap, which is well placed as long as FICC is booming, but has until 2011 to build a strong M&A presence if it wants to stay on top while the cycle plays out.
Click on the image below to enlarge.
Source: Bernstein Research
COMMENTS
djm, Trading, Wed 28 Oct 09
So I want to be in govvie trading for the rest of this year and most of 2010 at JPM, followed by a switch to Lazard M&A ready to begin February 2011, with a move to portfolio management at the end of that year, and finally spending H2 of 2012 at the retail brokerage at MS.
I'm going to fire my career coach - Sarah does the planning for me.
Citysage, Derivatives, Wed 28 Oct 09
we've been in the low point of the cycle effectively since 2001. Fixed income is will be king for some time to come......
Add your comment »makak, Investor Relations / PR, Wed 28 Oct 09
where can we get the full research report?
Add your comment »Sarah, Editor, eFinancialCareers, HR & Recruitment, Wed 28 Oct 09
@Makak- you'd have to contact Bernstein Research in the US.
Add your comment »Yawn, Equities, Wed 28 Oct 09
To play this cycle as suggested you'd have to be a jack of all trades, master of none? And switch from bulge brackets to niche players and then back? And expect the houses to want to hire an experienced hand into a field they have no experience in (and thus take a pay cut so what's the point)? And fit into wildly different house cultures? (I note the original researchers only suggested this was the earnings cycle, it was eFc who suggested to position your career at these houses at each point).
Add your comment »Snore, Debt / Fixed Income, Wed 28 Oct 09
In Interest Rate Derivatives, whats the relevance. Institutions will want to hedge their rate risk in rising, falling and sideways interest rate cycles, depending on if you are issuing or investing. Come on, this is just filling space.
Add your comment »know and show ya'll get up u cant mess wit me, Global Custody, Thu 29 Oct 09
i just wanna know and go y'all get laid and paid all day in every way like a true city player das wassup my boy!!!!
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